Iranian Journal of Applied Ecology

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Naghipour A, Yousefi B, Moradi M. Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on the Distribution of Wild Goat (Capra aegagrus) and Wild Sheep (Ovis gmelini) in Fars Province. Iranian Journal of Applied Ecology 2025; 13 (3) :31-46
URL: http://ijae.iut.ac.ir/article-1-1243-en.html

Climate change, by intensifying habitat destruction and altering species distributions, has emerged as a major challenge for conservation biologists. The wild goat (Capra aegagrus) and the wild sheep (Ovis gmelini) are among the most prominent large herbivores in Iran. This study aimed to assess the impacts of climate change on the habitat distribution of these two species in Fars Province. The MaxEnt model and various climate scenarios were used to predict current and future (2070) habitat suitability. Results indicated that distance from protected areas and slope were the most influential variables in predicting suitable habitats for both species. Under current conditions, 15.56% of the area was identified as suitable habitat for wild goats, and 32.9% for wild sheep. Projections under different climate scenarios revealed that suitable habitat for wild goats may decline by up to 62%, and for wild sheep by up to 64%. Additionally, within the currently managed protected areas of the Fars province, 75.16% of the habitats overlaps with suitable habitat for mouflons and 48.71%  overlapd with suitable habitat for wild goats. These findings highlight the urgent need for effective habitat conservation and management strategies in the face of anticipated climate change impacts.