Iranian Journal of Applied Ecology

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Eftekhari A, Khodagholi M, Saboohi R, Khalifehzadeh R, Ashouri P, Goudarzi M. Modeling the Distribution of Some Plant Species Under Climate Change Scenarios in Khorasan Razavi Province. Iranian Journal of Applied Ecology 2025; 14 (1) :101-119
URL: http://ijae.iut.ac.ir/article-1-1257-en.html

Climate change exerts a substantial influence on the geographical distribution of species. The present study aimed to develop predictive habitat suitability maps for selected plant species in Khorasan Razavi Province using climate projection models. Climatic trends were first assessed through the Mann–Kendall test, after which potential species distribution maps were produced using logistic regression based on 19 bioclimatic variables and three physiographic factors. The findings indicate a pronounced warming trend across Khorasan Razavi Province, with statistically significant temperature increases observed at 83% of meteorological stations. Rising temperatures, particularly in high-altitude regions, contribute to earlier snowmelt and a consequent decline in water storage. Logistic regression results suggest that Stipa arabica, Bromus tomentellus, Ferula ovina, and Artemisia aucheri potentially occupy 34.4%, 24.8%, 10.23%, and 5.6% of the provincial area, respectively, with a probability of occurrence ranging from 75% to 100%. Overall, the results demonstrate that climate change—especially under pessimistic scenarios—has considerable effects on plant species distributions, potentially leading to contraction of ecological niches and a decline in biodiversity. Accordingly, addressing climate change impacts through appropriate adaptation measures and biodiversity conservation strategies is of critical importance.