Volume 10, Issue 4 (3-2022)                   2022, 10(4): 39-51 | Back to browse issues page


XML Persian Abstract Print


Download citation:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:

Ashrafzadeh M R, Shojaei Z, Shaloei F, Naghipour A A, Heidarian M. Modeling Current and Future Potential Distributions of Caspian Pond Turtle (Mauremys caspica) under Climate Change Scenarios. Iranian Journal of Applied Ecology 2022; 10 (4) :39-51
URL: http://ijae.iut.ac.ir/article-1-1085-en.html
Shahrekord University
Abstract:   (3012 Views)
Although turtles are the most threatened taxonomic group within the reptile class, we have a very limited understanding of how turtles respond to climate change. Here, we evaluated the effects of climate changes on the geographical distribution of Caspian pond turtle (Mauremys caspica). We used an ensemble approach by combining six species distribution models including artificial neural network, generalized boosted model, generalized linear model, flexible discriminant analysis, random forest and multivariate adaptive regression splines. To predict the future distribution, modelling projection of MRI-CGCM3 was used for the year 2070 under four scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCP). Based on the findings, the suitable habitat of Caspian pond turtle was estimated to be about 835941 km2 (about 8.73%) of the study area. Our model projections showed that about 26 to 33% of the current suitable habitats will be unsuitable by 2070 due to climate change. The annual precipitation (24.56%), precipitation of wettest quarter (24.28%), precipitation seasonality (16.93%) and temperature seasonality (14.64%) had the highest contribution to model performance of Caspian pond turtles. Overall, our findings emphasize the need for a comprehensive understanding of the complex effects of climate change on the species, specially turtles.
Full-Text [PDF 1083 kb]   (1783 Downloads)    
Type of Study: Research | Subject: General

Add your comments about this article : Your username or Email:
CAPTCHA

Send email to the article author


Rights and permissions
Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

© 2024 CC BY-NC 4.0 | Iranian Journal of Applied Ecology

Designed & Developed by : Yektaweb