Iranian Journal of Applied Ecology

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Valipour A, Pir Bavaghar M, Naderi A. Hazard zonation of the Green Oak Tortrix (Tortrix viridana L.) in the forests of Sarvabad, Kurdistan Province, Iran. Iranian Journal of Applied Ecology 2025; 14 (3) :69-84
URL: http://ijae.iut.ac.ir/article-1-1294-en.html

The green oak tortrix (Tortrix viridana) is a significant pest affecting the Zagros forests, where larval feeding on leaves and buds severely weakens oak trees. Despite ongoing control efforts, comprehensive data on its distribution and critical risk areas remain scarce. This study aimed to model the probability of pest occurrence and delineate hazard zones in the Sarvabad forests using logistic regression. We randomly sampled 61 infested and 57 non-infested points. Spatial variables, including elevation, aspect, slope, and distances to agricultural lands, residential areas, main roads, and rivers, were extracted in a GIS environment and utilized as predictors. Our results indicated that elevation, slope, distance from residential areas, and distance from roads significantly negatively influenced the probability of pest presence. Model fit indices (Nagelkerke R² = 0.502, Hosmer–Lemeshow, AUC = 0.864, and an overall classification accuracy of 75.4%) demonstrated good predictive performance. The hazard zonation map revealed that 22% of the Sarvabad forests were classified as high risk, 11.2% as moderate risk, and the remainder as low risk. These findings highlight the influential factors that explain the spatial distribution of the pest and suggest that applying these results can improve management strategies and control measures.