Unplanned tourism development threatens natural ecosystems and increases instability within protected areas. This study aimed to inform management decisions by estimating the tourism carrying capacity of Oshtorankuh Protected Area, following the framework of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) at three levels: physical, real, and effective. The annual physical capacity was estimated at 6,742,163 tourists. Considering climatic constraints and the unavailability of tourism activities during four months (May–August), the real carrying capacity was estimated at 1,334,075 visitors, representing those who can visit during favorable months. The effective capacity, accounting for area size and ranger staffing for management and control, is approximately 359,525 visitors per year. These estimates help promote balanced human use of the land and enable managers to implement measures that protect the area. By controlling tourist numbers, it is possible to maximize tourism potential while minimizing environmental degradation, ensuring the preservation of these invaluable natural resources for future generations.