Iranian Journal of Applied Ecology

Mendeley  

Zotero  

Mousavi S K, Sohrabi S, Ghanbari A, Ghorbani R, Baghestani M A. Prediction of Wild Wheat (Triticum Monococcum subsp. aegilopoides) Distribution in Iran with Climate Match Index. Iranian Journal of Applied Ecology 2026; 14 (4) :15-29
URL: http://ijae.iut.ac.ir/article-1-1252-en.html

 Wild wheat (Triticum monococcum subsp. aegilopoides) is a wild relative of cultivated wheat with high genetic value. Native to Iran, it has recently emerged in rainfed wheat fields. This study investigated the potential shift in its distribution range under current and future climate conditions up to 2080 using the Climate Match Index and the CLIMEX model. Projections indicated that this species has a high establishment potential across various regions of the country. Cold provinces and cities exhibited the highest potential, with over 100 cities showing a climate similarity index above 0.8. Under climate change, Ardabil and East Azerbaijan provinces were identified as key areas for establishment potential. In contrast, regions of Lorestan Province that currently host this species will become up to 18% less suitable for its growth and spread by 2080. The results identified susceptible areas and highlighted the need for management actions to monitor its distribution, both as a weed and as a genetic resource. Measures such as seed dispersal control and the design of compatible crop rotations can prevent its spread to potential fields while simultaneously conserving its valuable populations.