Iranian Journal of Applied Ecology

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Bazrmanesh A, Tarkesh M, Bashari H, Amiri M. Determining the Geographical Distribution and Tolerance Range of Festuca ovina L. under Climate Change Using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) Model. Iranian Journal of Applied Ecology 2025; 14 (1) :44-64
URL: http://ijae.iut.ac.ir/article-1-1083-en.html

Predicting the distribution of plant species plays a critical role in understanding rangeland ecosystem sustainability, management planning, and the implementation of restoration and rehabilitation programs. This study modeled the geographic distribution of sheep fescue (Festuca ovina L.) and investigated the potential impacts of climate change on its habitat in Isfahan Province using the MaxEnt model. Relationships between species presence and topographic variables (elevation, slope, aspect), as well as bioclimatic variables (precipitation, temperature), were analyzed. The effects of climate change were examined under optimistic (RCP 2.6) and pessimistic (RCP 8.5) scenarios using the CCSM4 model for 2050 and 2070. Results indicated that MaxEnt performed efficiently, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.98, outperforming random predictions. Jackknife analysis identified precipitation during the warmest season and elevation as the most influential variables affecting species presence. Response curves indicated the highest presence probability at elevations of 2,200–3,800 m, with 4–6 mm precipitation during the warmest season, 250–300 mm of annual precipitation, and a mean annual temperature of 6–8 °C. Projections showed a slight increase in unsuitable habitats and an upward shift toward higher elevations under the pessimistic scenario. The findings provide a valuable basis for identifying suitable habitats for species establishment and for developing evidence-based rangeland management and restoration strategies.