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بررسی شدت زوال، وضعیت فلورستیک و تنوع گیاهی سه رویشگاه درختچه ارژن Amygdalus lyciodes Spach دراستان لرستان Investigation of Decline Severity, Floristic Status, and Plant Diversity in Three Amygdalus Lyciodes Spach Habitats in Lorstan Province 1 1 پژوهش حاضر با هدف بررسی شدت زوال، وضعیت فلورستیک و تنوع گیاهی در سه رویشگاه زوال یافته درختچه ارژن در مناطق دادآباد، ریمله و گایکان در استان لرستان انجام شد. در هر رویشگاه 5 قطعه نمونه یک هکتاری برای آماربرداری گونه های درختی و درختچه ای، 10 میکروپلات یک مترمربعی برای ثبت نمونه های علفی و 5 نمونه ترکیبی خاک برداشت شد. براساس نتایج، درصد خشکیدگی در گایکان، ریمله و دادآباد به ترتیب 56/20 ، 26/25 و 21/21 بود. در سه منطقه، در مجموع 146گونه گیاهی شناسایی شد که خانواده های Asteraceae و Gramineae، شکل های زیستی تروفیت و همی کریتوفیت  و ناحیه رویشی ایران و تورانی بیشترین فراوانی را داشتند. شاخص های تنوع گیاهی نیز در منطقه دادآباد از مقادیر بالاتری برخوردار بودند. با توجه به نتایج، به نظر می رسد خالص بودن رویشگاه، پایین بودن تنوع گیاهی، وفور گونه های مهاجم، افزایش وزن مخصوص ظاهری و اسیدیته خاک و شدت بیشتر زوال در رویشگاه گایکان اصلی ترین تفاوت های این رویشگاه با دو رویشگاه دیگر ارژن در این مطالعه می باشند. همچنین در هر سه رویشگاه خاک از نظر عناصر غذایی فقیر و ضعیف بود. به طور کلی می توان بیان کرد که رویشگاه گایکان از نظر زوال، کیفیت فلورستیک، خاک و پایداری اکوسیستم در شرایط بحرانی تری قرار داشته و انجام عملیات احیایی و مراقبتی در این منطقه ضرورت بیشتری دارد.  2 The present study investigates the intensity of deterioration, floristic status, and plant diversity in three degraded habitats of Amygdalus lyciodes Spach shrublands in Dadaabad, Rimaleh, and Gaikan, Lorestan Province. In each habitat, five one-hectare plots were sampled for tree and shrub species, ten 1-m² microplots for herbaceous plants, and five composite soil samples were collected. Results showed deterioration rates of 56.20% in Gaikan, 26.25% in Rimaleh, and 21.21% in Dadaabad. A total of 146 plant species were identified, with Asteraceae and Gramineae being the most represented families. Therophytes and hemicryptophytes were the dominant life forms, and the Irano-Turanian phytogeographic region was the most prevalent chorotype. Plant diversity indices were highest in Dadaabad. The Gaikan site exhibited lower stand purity, diversity indices, and higher soil bulk density, pH, exotic species frequency, and deterioration rate compared to the other sites. Overall, Gaikan is in a more critical condition regarding deterioration, floristic quality, soil health, and ecosystem sustainability. Urgent restoration and conservation measures are needed to prevent further degradation in this region. 1 24 2025/02/17 1403/11/29 2025/09/3 1404/6/12 سامان فلاح S. Fallah گروه جنگلداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم آباد، ایران. ایران falahe.saman@gmail.com زهرا میرآزادی Z. Mirazadi گروه جنگلداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم آباد، ایران. ایران mirazadi.z@lu.ac.ir بابک پیله ور B. Pilehvar گروه جنگلداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم آباد، ایران. ایران pilehvar.b@lu.ac.ir حمزه جعفری سرابی H. Jafari Sarabi گروه جنگلداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم آباد، ایران. ایران jafarisarabi2011@gmail.com Vegetation Middle Zagros Drying Diversity indices Floristic quality پوشش گیاهی خشکیدگی زاگرس مرکزی شاخص های تنوع وضعیت فلورستیک 1-Ahirwal, J. and Maiti, S.K., 2016. Assessment of soil properties of different land uses generated due to surface coal mining activities in tropical Sal (Shorea robusta) forest, India. 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ارزیابی یکپارچه و ترسیم مکانی فشارهای انسانی مؤثر بر وضعیت بوم‌شناختی حوضه آبریز کشف‌رود Integrated Assessment and Spatial Mapping of Anthropogenic Pressures Affecting the Ecological Status of the Kashafrud River Basin 1 1 رودخانه‌ها و حوضه‌های آبریز، عناصر حیاتی چرخه هیدرولوژیک و بوم‌سازگان‌های طبیعی محسوب می‌شوند؛ بااین‌حال، گسترش شهرنشینی، تغییر کاربری اراضی، بهره‌برداری بی‌رویه از منابع آب، سدسازی و ورود آلاینده‌های صنعتی و کشاورزی، فشارهای متعددی را بر این سامانه‌ها وارد کرده است. پژوهش حاضر با رویکردی یکپارچه به ارزیابی فشارهای انسانی مؤثر  بر حوضه آبریز کشف‌رود در شمال شرق ایران پرداخته است. در این مطالعه، کیفیت آب در محل 10 ایستگاه، با استفاده از شاخص IRWQIsc بررسی شد و فشارهای ناشی از کشاورزی، توسعه شهری، فعالیت‌های صنعتی، برداشت شن و ماسه و سدسازی با بهره‌گیری از داده‌های مکانی و تصاویر ماهواره‌ای تحلیل شد. نتایج نشان داد که درصد پوشش اراضی کشاورزی طی پنج دهه از 44/13% به 23/18% افزایش و سطح پوشش مراتع از 20/58%  به 98/36% کاهش‌یافته است؛ هم‌زمان اراضی مسکونی از 27/1% به 24/2% گسترش یافته‌اند. نتایج محاسبه شاخص کیفیت آب بیانگر آن است که اکثر ایستگاه‌های پایش در طبقه‌ «خیلی بد» جای‌دارند. همچنین تحلیل فشارهای تجمعی نشان داد که نواحی مرکزی و شمال شرقی حوضه، به‌ویژه اطراف کلان‌شهر مشهد، بیشترین شدت فشار انسانی را تجربه می‌کنند. این نتایج، ضرورت مدیریت یکپارچه منابع آب، بازنگری در الگوهای توسعه کاربری اراضی و کنترل منابع آلاینده کشاورزی و صنعتی را برای احیا و پایداری بلندمدت رودخانه کشف‌رود برجسته می‌سازد.   2 Rivers and their basins are vital components of the hydrological cycle and natural ecosystems. However, rapid urban expansion, land-use change, overexploitation of water resources, dam construction, and the influx of industrial and agricultural pollutants have imposed significant pressures on these systems. This study adopts an integrated approach to assess anthropogenic pressures affecting the Kashafrud River Basin in northeastern Iran. Water quality was evaluated at 10 monitoring stations using the Iranian Water Quality Index for Surface Waters (IRWQIsc), while agricultural expansion, urban development, industrial activities, sand and gravel extraction, and dam construction were analyzed through spatial data and satellite imagery. Results indicate that agricultural land cover increased from 13.44% to 18.23% over the past five decades, while rangeland decreased from 58.20% to 36.98%. Simultaneously, residential areas expanded from 1.27% to 2.24%. Water quality assessments further revealed that most monitoring stations fell into the “very poor” category. Cumulative pressure analysis highlighted that the central and northeastern parts of the basin, particularly around the metropolitan area of Mashhad, are subject to the highest levels of anthropogenic stress. These findings underscore the urgent need for integrated water resources management, reconsideration of land-use development patterns, and stricter control of agricultural and industrial pollution sources to restore and ensure the long-term sustainability of the Kashafrud River.   25 43 2025/02/172025/08/10 1404/5/19 2025/09/32025/11/15 1404/8/24 مهشید حسینی M. Hosseini علوم و مهندسی محیط زیست، پژوهشکده علوم محیطی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران. ایران mahs_hosseini@sbu.ac.ir حسین مصطفوی H. Mostafavi گروه تنوع زیستی و مدیریت اکوسیستم ها، پژوهشکده علوم محیطی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران. ایران hmostafaviw@gmail.com خسرو پیری Kh. Piri گروه تنوع زیستی و مدیریت اکوسیستم ها، پژوهشکده علوم محیطی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران. ایران khpiri@gmail.com مجید دلاور M. Delavar گروه مهندسی و مدیریت آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران. ایران delavar_we@yahoo.com کامران داوری K. Davari گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی، مشهد، ایران. ایران k.davary@um.ac.ir Kashafrud River Water Quality Anthropogenic Pressures Land Use IRWQIsc Water Resources Management کشف‌رود کیفیت آب فشارهای انسانی کاربری اراضی شاخص IRWQIsc مدیریت منابع آب 1. Abedini, M., Pour Farrash Zadeh, F. and Gharachorlu, M., 2021. Analysis and modeling of the relationship between monthly discharge and geomorphometric characteristics (Case Study: Kashafrood Watershed). Geography and Environmental Planning 32(4): 29-44. (In Persian)##2. Aghasafari, H., Ghorbani, M. and Doorandish, A., 2015. Analysis of farmers' financial participation to reduce chemical fertilizer consumption (Case study: Kashafrud River watershed). Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development 29(1): 1-19. (In Persian)##3. 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تعیین پراکنش جغرافیایی و دامنه بردباری گونه .Festuca ovina L تحت تغییر اقلیم با مدل حداکثر آنتروپی (MaxEnt) Determining the Geographical Distribution and Tolerance Range of Festuca ovina L. under Climate Change Using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) Model 1 1 پیش بینی پراکنش مکانی گیاهان نقش مهمی در تبیین پایداری اکوسیستم‌های مرتعی، طراحی برنامه های مدیریتی و اجرای اقدامات اصلاح و احیاء دارد. در این مطالعه، پراکنش جغرافیایی گونه علف بره (Festuca ovina L.) و تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر آن در استان اصفهان با مدل حداکثر آنتروپی بررسی شد. ارتباط حضور گونه با متغیرهای توپوگرافی (ارتفاع، شیب، جهت) و زیست‌اقلیمی (بارندگی و درجه حرارت) تحلیل شدند. تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر پراکنش گونه نیز تحت سناریوهای خوش بینانه (RCP2.6) و بدبینانه (RCP8.5) مدل گردش عمومی CCSM4 برای سال‌های 2050 و 2070 ارزیابی شد. طبق نتایج، مدل با سطح زیر منحنی 0/98، کارایی بالایی در تعیین رویشگاه گونه داشت و به طور معنی-داری قوی تر از مدل تصادفی عمل کرد. آزمون جک نایف نشان داد، بارندگی گرم‌ترین فصل و ارتفاع، مهم‌ترین عوامل مؤثر بر حضور گونه می باشند. بر اساس منحنی های پاسخ، گونه در ارتفاع 3800-2200 متر، بارندگی 6-4 میلی متر در گرم‌ترین فصل، بارش سالانه 300-250 میلی متر و دمای سالانه 8-6 درجه سانتی گراد احتمال حضور بالاتری دارد. پیش‌بینی‌ها حاکی از افزایش اندک رویشگاه‌های نامطلوب و جابجایی گونه به سمت ارتفاعات بالاتر تحت سناریوی اقلیمی بدبینانه است. نتایج، مبنایی ارزشمندی برای شناسایی رویشگاه‌های مناسب جهت کشت گونه در چارچوب طرح‌های مدیریت مرتع فراهم می‎آورند. 2 Predicting the distribution of plant species plays a critical role in understanding rangeland ecosystem sustainability, management planning, and the implementation of restoration and rehabilitation programs. This study modeled the geographic distribution of sheep fescue (Festuca ovina L.) and investigated the potential impacts of climate change on its habitat in Isfahan Province using the MaxEnt model. Relationships between species presence and topographic variables (elevation, slope, aspect), as well as bioclimatic variables (precipitation, temperature), were analyzed. The effects of climate change were examined under optimistic (RCP 2.6) and pessimistic (RCP 8.5) scenarios using the CCSM4 model for 2050 and 2070. Results indicated that MaxEnt performed efficiently, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.98, outperforming random predictions. Jackknife analysis identified precipitation during the warmest season and elevation as the most influential variables affecting species presence. Response curves indicated the highest presence probability at elevations of 2,200–3,800 m, with 4–6 mm precipitation during the warmest season, 250–300 mm of annual precipitation, and a mean annual temperature of 6–8 °C. Projections showed a slight increase in unsuitable habitats and an upward shift toward higher elevations under the pessimistic scenario. The findings provide a valuable basis for identifying suitable habitats for species establishment and for developing evidence-based rangeland management and restoration strategies. 44 64 2025/02/172025/08/102021/12/29 1400/10/8 2025/09/32025/11/152025/11/22 1404/9/1 آزاده بذرمنش A. Bazrmanesh گروه مرتع و آبخیزداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه صنعتی اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران. ایران azade.bazrmanesh@gmail.com مصطفی ترکش M. Tarkesh گروه مرتع و آبخیزداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه صنعتی اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران. ایران m_tarkesh@cc.iut.ac.ir حسین بشری H. Bashari گروه مرتع و آبخیزداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه صنعتی اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران. ایران hbashari@iut.ac.ir محدثه امیری M. Amiri گروه مرتع و آبخیزداری، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران. ایران amiri.m@uma.ac.ir Potential ecological niche Species presence Climate change scenarios Bioclimatic variables آشیان بوم‌شناختی بالقوه حضور گونه سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم متغیرهای زیست اقلیمی Alavi, S. J., Noori, Z. and Zahedi Amiri, G., 2017. The response curve of Beech tree (Fagus Orientalis Lipsky.) in relation to environmental variables using generalized additive model in Khayroud Forest, Nowshahr. Journal of Wood and Forest Science and Technology 24(1): 29-42. (In Persian)##2. Almasieh, K., Zoratipour, A., Negaresh, K. and Delfan-Hasanzadeh, K., 2018. Habitat quality modelling and effect of climate change on the distribution of Centaurea pabotii in Iran. Spanish Journal of Agricultural Research 16(3): e0304.##3. 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شناسایی و اولویت بندی ذی نفعان تالاب میانکاله راهکاری جهت حفاظت پایدار و مدیریت بهینه Identifying and Prioritizing the Stakeholders of Miankaleh Wetland as a Strategy for Sustainable Conservation and Effective Management 1 1 تالاب ها به عنوان یکی از ارزشمندترین زیست‌بوم‌های طبیعی، نقش حیاتی در حفظ تنوع زیستی، تعادل اکولوژیکی و پشتیبانی از معیشت جوامع محلی ایفا می‌کنند. تعامل انسان با این اکوسیستم حساس، تأثیر مستقیمی بر پایداری و مدیریت محیط‌زیست آن ها دارد. ازاین‌رو، شناسایی دقیق ذی نفعان و درک نقش آن‌ها گامی کلیدی در مسیر حفاظت پایدار تالاب‌ها به‌شمار می‌رود. پژوهش حاضر با هدف شناسایی و اولویت‌بندی ذی¬نفعان مؤثر تالاب میانکاله صورت گرفته است. در این مطالعه پس از شناسایی ذی نفعان تالاب میانکاله، داده‌های مورد نیاز از طریق پرسشنامه دلفی و نظرات متخصصان گردآوری شده است. جهت تعیین وزن شاخص‌ها از روشEntropy و به‌منظور رتبه‌بندی ذی نفعان از مدل‌های تصمیم‌گیری چندمعیاره TOPSIS  و ARAS  استفاده شده است. نتایج نشان دادند که نسل‌های آینده به ترتیب در مدل  TOPSISو ARAS، با وزن 0/7948 و 8/15 در اولویت نخست قرار دارند و پس از آن سازمان‌های مردم‌نهاد و اداره کل حفاظت محیط‌زیست به ترتیب در مدل TOPSIS و ARAS، با وزن 0/7257 و 6/15 رتبه های بعد را به خود اختصاص داده اند. یافته‌های این پژوهش بر ضرورت تصمیم‌گیری‌های آینده‌نگر و برنامه‌ریزی مدیریتی با محوریت آموزش و مشارکت مردمی تأکید دارد و میتواند مبنای علمی جهت حفاظت موثر، مدیریت پایدار و هوشمندانه تر تالاب میانکاله را فراهم سازد.  2 Wetlands are among the most vital ecosystems, crucial for biodiversity, ecological balance, and local livelihoods. Human interactions threaten their sustainability, making stakeholder identification and understanding essential for conservation. This study aims to identify and prioritize key stakeholders influencing the Miankaleh Wetland. Data were collected via Delphi questionnaires and expert opinions. The Entropy method was used to assign weights to indicators, while TOPSIS and ARAS multi-criteria decision-making models ranked stakeholders. Results showed that future generations were prioritized highest, with weights of 0.7948 (TOPSIS) and 8.15 (ARAS). Non-governmental organizations and the Department of Environment followed, with weights of 0.7257 and 6.150, respectively. The findings underscore the importance of forward-thinking management that emphasizes education and public participation. Ultimately, this research provides a scientific foundation for the effective, sustainable, and intelligent conservation of the Miankaleh Wetland. 65 80 2025/02/172025/08/102021/12/292025/05/17 1404/2/27 2025/09/32025/11/152025/11/222025/11/23 1404/9/2 فاطمه رزاقی پهنه کلائی F. Razaghi Pahneh Kolaei اقتصاد منابع طبیعی و محیط زیست، دانشکده مهندسی زراعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری ایران s.fatemeh.razaghi@gmail.com حمید امیرنژاد H. Amirnejad گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده مهندسی زراعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری. ایران h.amirnejad@sanru.ac.ir مریم اسدپور کردی M. Asad pour kordi گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی ، دانشکده مهندسی زراعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری ایران asadpoor77@gmail.com کمال عطایی سلوط K. Ataei solout گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی ، دانشکده مهندسی زراعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری. ایران kamal.ataei.s@gmail.com ARAS TOPSIS Coastal Wetland Entropy Technique Stakeholders Delphi Method آراس تاپسیس تالاب ساحلی تکنیک انتروپی ذی نفعان روش دلفی 1. 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بررسی انتشار آلودگی پساب آب‌شیرین‌کن ایمواسکو به دریای عمان با استفاده از مدل CORMIX Study of Pollution Release from Imvasco Desalination Plant into the Oman Sea, Using the CORMIX Model 1 1 یکی از مسائل محیط‌زیستی مربوط به آب‌شیرین‌کن‌ها و به‌ویژه آب‌شیرین‌کن‌های اسمز معکوس در مناطق ساحلی، تخلیه پساب فوق شور به محیط دریا است. هدف اصلی مطالعه حاضر بررسی پخش شوری پساب آب‌شیرین‌کن‌ ایمواسکو با استفاده از مدل عددی CORMIX است تا بتوان طرحی بهینه برای ترقیق تخلیه پساب و نیز مکان‌های آب‌گیری و تخلیه پساب ارائه نمود. در این راستا، سناریوهای متنوعی بر اساس تخلیه پساب به صورت تک دریچه‌ای و چند دریچه‌ای، جهت و زاویه دریچه‌ها، تأثیر سرعت‌های مختلف جریان، بررسی اثر عمق بر رفتار هاله آلودگی و میزان غلظت بررسی گردید. بر اساس نتایج مدل‌سازی، تخلیه پساب در عمق 5 متری و نیز به صورت تک دریچه‌ای پیشنهاد نمی‌شود. هم‌چنین، نتایج نشان داد استفاده از دریچه‌های تناوبی باعث افزایش انتشار هاله آلودگی و برگشت پساب شور به سمت ساحل خواهد شد و دریچه‌های هم‌جهت نتایج بهتری ارائه می‌دهند. نتایج مدل‌سازی با سرعت‌های مختلف جریان محیط اختلاف زیادی در انتشار هاله آلودگی شوری پساب نشان نداد. با توجه به میزان رقیق‌شدگی، ضخامت عمودی هاله آلودگی و میزان افزایش شوری محیط در شعاع‌های مختلف، بهترین سناریو فاصله آبگیری در 505 متری از ساحل (عمق 16 متر) و فاصله تخلیه پساب از خط ساحلی 325 متر (عمق 8 متر) است.  2 One of the environmental issues associated with desalination plants, particularly reverse osmosis plants in coastal areas, is the discharge of highly saline effluent into the marine environment. The primary objective of this study is to investigate the salinity distribution of effluent from the Imvasco desalination plant using the Cormix numerical model. The goal is to optimize the design of effluent dilution and assess the suitability of water intake and discharge locations. Various scenarios were examined, including single-port and multi-port wastewater discharges, different port angles, the effects of varying flow velocities, and the influence of depth on plume behavior and concentration. The modeling results indicate that, at a depth of 5 meters with a single-port discharge, the configuration is not recommended. The results further suggest that using alternating ports increases plume dispersion toward the shore, while ports aligned in the same direction yield better outcomes. Ambient flow velocities showed minimal impact on the spread of the effluent salinity plume. In the optimal scenario, the water intake should be located approximately 505 meters from the shore at a depth of 16 meters, and the effluent discharge should be positioned about 325 meters from the shore at a depth of 8 meters. 81 100 2025/02/172025/08/102021/12/292025/05/172025/08/19 1404/5/28 2025/09/32025/11/152025/11/222025/11/232025/11/29 1404/9/8 فاطمه رجایی F. Rajaei گروه علوم محیط زیست، دانشکده علوم، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران. ایران Rajaei_Fatemeh@znu.ac.ir Brine discharge Desalination plant Cormix model ایمواسکو آب‌شیرین‌کن پساب شور مدل CORMIX 1. Alameddine, M., and El-Fadel, A. 2007. Brine discharge from desalination plants: a modeling approach to an optimized outfall design. Desalination, 214: 241–260. ##2. Aljohani, N. S., Kavil, Y. N., Shanas, P. R. and Al-Farawati, R. K. 2022. Environmental impacts of thermal and brine dispersion using hydrodynamic modelling for Yanbu desalination plant, on the Eastern coast of the Red Sea. Sustainability, 14: 4389.##3. Alnajjar, H. S. 2015. Numerical modeling of brine disposal for Gaza central seawater desalination plant. MSc Thesis. Civil infrastructure engineering, Islamic University of Gaza. 161P. ##4. Amitouche, M., Lefkir, A., Remini B., Sebki, M. and Aissaoui L. 2022. Diagnosis and improvement of diffuser performance of Fouka desalination plant (Algeria). Desalination and Water Treatment, 255: 94-100. ##5. Anton Purnama, A., Al-Barwania, H. H., Bleningerb, T. and Donekerc, R. L. 2011. CORMIX simulations of brine discharges from Barka plants, Oman. Desalination and Water Treatment 32: 329-338. ##6. Azimi A. H., Azizi, F. and Etemad-Shahidi, A. 2005. A new formulation to estimate initial dilution of dense jet flow, Proceedings of the 31st IAHR World Congress (Seoul) , pp. 4241-4248.##7. Azizi, Z., Rezapour M. and Moghadam M. 2022. Numerical study of desalination effluent diffusion using Cormix software. Journal of Marine Engineering, 18: 1-12. (In Persian).##8. Balas, L., and Yilmaz, N. 2018. 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مدل‌سازی پراکنش برخی گونه‌های گیاهی تحت سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم در استان خراسان رضوی Modeling the Distribution of Some Plant Species Under Climate Change Scenarios in Khorasan Razavi Province 1 1 تغییر اقلیم به طور قابل توجهی بر دامنه پراکنش گونه‌ها تأثیر می‌گذارد. این پژوهش با هدف تهیه نقشه پیش‌بینی رویشگاه گونه‌های گیاهی منتخب در استان خراسان رضوی بر پایه مدل‌های پیش‌بینی اقلیمی انجام شده است. در این مطالعه، پس از بررسی روند تغییرات اقلیمی با استفاده از آزمون من-کندال، نقشه پراکنش بالقوه گونه‌ها با استفاده از روش رگرسیون لجستیک و بر اساس 19 لایه بایواقلیمی و سه متغیر فیزیوگرافی تهیه شد. نتایج نشان داد که استان خراسان رضوی با افزایش دما مواجه است و روند صعودی دما در 83 درصد از ایستگاه‌ها معنی‌دار است. افزایش دما به ویژه در ارتفاعات، ذوب زودهنگام برف و کاهش ذخیره آب را به دنبال دارد. مدل رگرسیون لجستیک نشان داد که گونه‌های  Stipa arabica، Bromus tomentellus، Ferula ovina  و Artemisia aucheri  به ترتیب 4/34، 8/24، 23/10 و 6/5 درصد از مساحت استان را با احتمال رخداد 75 تا 100 درصد پوشش می‌دهند. نتایج نشان داد که تغییرات اقلیمی به ویژه در سناریوی بد بینانه اثرات قابل توجهی بر پراکنش گونه‌های گیاهی دارد و می‌تواند منجر به کاهش آشیان اکولوژیک گونه‌ها، کاهش تنوع زیستی شود. بنابراین، توجه به این موضوع و اتخاذ تدابیر مناسب برای سازگاری با تغییرات اقلیمی و حفظ تنوع زیستی ضروری است. 2 Climate change exerts a substantial influence on the geographical distribution of species. The present study aimed to develop predictive habitat suitability maps for selected plant species in Khorasan Razavi Province using climate projection models. Climatic trends were first assessed through the Mann–Kendall test, after which potential species distribution maps were produced using logistic regression based on 19 bioclimatic variables and three physiographic factors. The findings indicate a pronounced warming trend across Khorasan Razavi Province, with statistically significant temperature increases observed at 83% of meteorological stations. Rising temperatures, particularly in high-altitude regions, contribute to earlier snowmelt and a consequent decline in water storage. Logistic regression results suggest that Stipa arabica, Bromus tomentellus, Ferula ovina, and Artemisia aucheri potentially occupy 34.4%, 24.8%, 10.23%, and 5.6% of the provincial area, respectively, with a probability of occurrence ranging from 75% to 100%. Overall, the results demonstrate that climate change—especially under pessimistic scenarios—has considerable effects on plant species distributions, potentially leading to contraction of ecological niches and a decline in biodiversity. Accordingly, addressing climate change impacts through appropriate adaptation measures and biodiversity conservation strategies is of critical importance. 101 119 2025/02/172025/08/102021/12/292025/05/172025/08/192025/05/26 1404/3/5 2025/09/32025/11/152025/11/222025/11/232025/11/292025/12/14 1404/9/23 علیرضا افتخاری A.R. Eftekhari بخش تحقیقات مرتع، موسسه تحقیقات جنگلها و مراتع کشور، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران، ایران. ایران alireza_ephtekhari@yahoo.com مرتضی خداقلی M. Khodagholi بخش تحقیقات مرتع، موسسه تحقیقات جنگلها و مراتع کشور، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران، ایران. ایران khodagholi@yahoo.com راضیه صبوحی R. 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