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مدل‌سازی پارامترهای تولید و پوشش تاجی به منظور معرفی مؤثرترین عامل محیطی در مراتع نیمه‌استپی باغرو، استان اردبیل ایران Modeling Production and Canopy Cover Parameters to identify the Most Effective Environmental Factors in Baghrou Semi-Steppe Rangelands of Ardabil Province, Iran 1 1 هدف از تحقیق حاضر تعیین مؤثرترین عوامل‌محیطی (پستی‌ و بلندی، اقلیمی و خاک) بر تغییرات تولید و پوشش تاجی گیاهی و تهیه مدل پیش‌بینی با استفاده از مهم‌ترین عامل در مراتع نیمه‌استپی هیر- باغرو استان اردبیل بود. ابتدا با در نظر گرفتن تیپ‌های گیاهی و عوامل‌محیطی، تولید و پوشش تاجی در مرحله گلدهی کامل گیاهان، با استفاده از پلات‌های یک متر مربعی، برداشت شد. برای تعیین مؤثرترین عوامل‌محیطی در تغییرات تولید و پوشش تاجی، از روش تجزیه به مؤلفه‌های اصلی استفاده شد. برای مدل‌سازیابتدا همبستگی بین تأثیرگذارترین عوامل‌محیطی به‌دست‌آمده از تجزیه به مؤلفه‌های اصلی انجام و عوامل با همبستگی بالا حذف و مدل‌سازی با استفاده از رابطه چندجمله‌ای درجه دو انجام شد. در نهایت مدل‌های به‌دست‌آمده در محیط GIS شبیه‌سازی شد. نتایج نشان‌داد که شش مؤلفه اول با 65/71 درصد، بیش‌ترین تأثیر را بر تغییرات تولید و پوشش تاجی داشت. با توجه به معیار (Root mean squared error =RMSE) نقشه‌های شبیه‌سازی شده تولید (76/0=RMSE) و پوشش تاجی (48/0=RMSE) توسط مهم‌ترین عامل تأثیرگذار به‌دست‌آمده (بارندگی سالیانه) نیز صحت بالایی را نشان‌ داد. یافته‌های این تحقیق می‌تواند در مدیریت مراتع در استان اردبیل در راستای ایجاد تعادل بین عرضه و تقاضای تولید و توازن کربن مورد استفاده قرار گیرد. 2 The aim of the study was to determine the most important environmental factors (topography, climate, and soil) affecting changes in production and canopy cover of plant variations and to prepare prediction maps, based on the most important factor, in semi-steppe rangelands of Hir-Baghrou, Ardabil province, Iran. First, by detecting the vegetation types and different classes of environmental factors, the production and canopy cover were estimated in 1-m2 plots at full flower stage of dominant species. Then, to determine the most important environmental factors, affecting the production and canopy cover changes, the principal component analysis (PCA) was used. For modeling, first, the correlation between the most effective environmental factors was obtained from the PCA. Then, the highly correlated factors were eliminated and the quadratic polynomial models were obtained. Finally, the obtained models were simulated in GIS. The results of the PCA showed that the first six components with 71.65% had the greatest effect on the production and canopy cover changes. Based on the root mean squared error (RMSE), simulating maps of production (RMSE=0.76) and canopy cover (RMSE=0.48) by effective factor (annual precipitation) showed the highest accuracy. The results of this study can be used to manage the rangelands of Ardabil province to create a balance between supply and demand of production and also to balance carbon. 1 15 2021/08/21 1400/5/30 2021/11/1 1400/8/10 فرید دادجو F. Dadjou دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی ایران f.dadjou@uma.ac.ir اردوان قربانی A. Ghorbani دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی ایران a_ghorbani@uma.ac.ir مهدی معمری M. Moameri دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی ایران moameri@uma.ac.ir رئوف مصطفی زاده R. Mostafazadeh دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی ایران Raoofmostafazadeh@uma.ac.ir زینب حزباوی Z. Hazbavi دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی ایران z.hazbavi@uma.ac.ir Simulation Rangeland Physiography Climate Soil parameters Ecoregion شبیه‌سازی مرتع پستی و بلندی اقلیم پارامترهای خاک منطقه اکولوژیک 1. Abdollahi, J., H. Arzani and H. Naderi. 2011. Effective meteoroidal factors for forage production of Nodoushan steppe rangelands in Yazd province. Iranian Journal of Rangeland 5(1): 45-56. (In Farsi)##2. Ahmadi, H., K. Javanshir, Gh. A. Ghanbarian and S. H. Habibian. 2002. 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R., S. Schwinning, and R. Gebauer. 1999. Water use in arid land ecosystems. In: Press, M. C., Scholes, J. D. and M. G. Barker. (Eds.), Physiological Plant Ecology. pp. 347-365, Blackwell Science, Boston, USA.##8. Ehrlich, P.R. and A. H. Ehrlich. 1991. Healing the planet: Strategies of solving the environmental crisis. Addison Wesley Reading Ma.##9. Elmojahid, L., X. Leroux, S. Michalet, F. Bellvert, A. Weigelt and F. Poly. 2017. Effect of plant diversity on the diversity of soil organic compounds. Journal of Plos One 12(2): 0170494.##10. Gervasio Pineiroa, G., S. Perelman, J. P. Guerschman and J. M. Paruelo. 2008. How to evaluate models: Observed vs. predicted or predicted vs. observed? Journal of Ecological Modeling 216: 316-322.##11. Ggeitury, M., N. Ansari and M. Heshmati. 2007. The effective factors of destruction in Kermanshah rangelands. Iranian Journal of Range and Desert Research 13(4): 314-323. (In Farsi)##12. Ghorbani, A. and A. Asghari. 2014. 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طبقه‌بندی جوامع گیاهی و ارتباط آنها با عوامل فیزیوگرافیک در جنگل دارابکلای استان مازندران Vegetation Classification of Darabkola Forest and Their Relation to Physiographic Factors 1 1 هدف پژوهش حاضر شناسایی و تشریح واحدهای جامعه‌شناختی جنگل آموزشی و پژوهشی دانشکده منابع طبیعی واقع در شرق شهرستان ساری، استان مازندران است. برای این منظور تعداد 139 قطعه نمونه 400 مترمربعی به صورت سیستماتیک- انتخابی با ابعاد شبکه 400 متری با تأکید بر اصل توده مُعرِّف، در سطح منطقه پیاده شد. طبقه‌بندی جوامع گیاهی با استفاده از روش TWINSPAN اصلاح شده و روش سنتز جدولی براون-بلانکه منجر به شناسایی پنج جامعه گیاهی انجیلی-ممرزستان، آزاد- بلوطستان، تاج ریزی جنگلی-راشستان، پلت- انجیلیستان و فرفیون جنگلی-راشستان به‌همراه چهار زیرجامعه تیپیک بلندمازو، راش، ممرز و لرگ شد. نمایش جوامع گیاهی در امتداد دو محور اول تحلیل تطبیقی قوس‌گیری شده (DCA) نشان داد که قطعات نمونه هر یک از جوامع گیاهی جنگل دارابکلا حاشیه مخصوص به خود را داشته و از یکدیگر متمایز هستند. نتایج تحلیل رگرسیون چندگانه عوامل فیزیوگرافیکی، نشان داد که عامل ارتفاع از سطح دریا به‌صورت معنی‌دار و با ضریب تبیین بالایی با دو محور اول DCA همبستگی دارد. به‌طور کلی، نتایج این پژوهش افزون بر معرفی و تشریح جوامع گیاهی جنگل دارابکلا، می‌تواند قابل استفاده در مطالعه‌ی زیر بنایی سایر تحقیقات به‌منظور شناخت بهتر جنگل داربکلا و درک قوانین بوم‌شناختی موجود در آن باشد. 2 This study focused on vegetation classification of Darabkola forest in the middle part of Hyrcanian forests in north of Iran. For this purpose, 139 releves were sampled using systematic- selective method in 400 m grid dimensions by the consideration of indicator stands concept. Based on modified TWINSPAN method and Braun-Blanquet phytosociological method, five associations (Parrotio persicae-Carpinetum betuli, Zelkovo carpinifoliae-Quercetum, Solano kieseritzkii-Fagetum orientalis, Aceri velutini-Parrotietum persicae and  Euphorbio amygdaloidae-Fagetum orientale) and four sub-associations (Zelkovo carpinifoliae-Quercetum castaneifoliae subasso a typical subasso Quercetosum, Zelkovo carpinifoliae-Quercetum castaneifoliae subasso Fagetosum orientale, Aceri velutini-Parrotietum persicae subasso Carpinetusum betuli and Aceri velutini-Parrotietum persicae subasso Pteroetosum fraxinifoliae) were distinguished. Demonstration of plant communities along the first two axes of detrended correspondence analysis (DCA) showed that these associations had almost distinct pattern. Also, results of multiple regression of topographic factors with the two first ordination axes of DCA indicated that elevation was the most important topographic factor in distribution of the associations in the Darabkola forests. In addition, the results of this study can lead to the more efficient management and better protection of Darbakla forest. 17 33 2021/08/212021/09/1 1400/6/10 2021/11/12021/11/7 1400/8/16 حامد اسدی H. Asadi دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری ایران h.asadi@sanru.ac.ir حمید جلیلوند H. Jalilvand دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری ایران h.jalilvand@sanru.ac.ir سید مصطفی مسلمی سید محله S. M. Moslemi دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری ایران smm797@yahoo.com Vegetation Classification Modified TWINSPAN Braun-Blnquet method Darabkola forest طبقه‌بندی پوشش‌گیاهی روش براون-بلانکه TWINSPAN اصلاح شده جنگل داربکلای مازندران 1. Asadi, H., O. Esmailzadeh, S. M. Hosseini, Y. Asri and H. Zare. 2016. Application of Cocktail method in vegetation classification. 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بررسی میزان مسئولیت‌پذیری و مشارکت محیط‌زیستی مناطق روستایی در حفاظت (مطالعه موردی: شهرستان بندرعباس) Investigating the Level of Environmental Responsibility and Participation of Rural Areas in Conservation, a case study in Bandar Abbas County 1 1 هدف از این پژوهش بررسی میزان مشارکت و مسئولیت‌پذیری محیط‌زیستی ساکنین مناطق روستایی شهرستان بندرعباس بود که به شیوه پیمایشی و میدانی انجام شد. با استفاده از فرمول کوکران و جمعیت کل ساکن در روستاها تعدا 366 پرسشنامه به شیوه طبقه‌ای- تصادفی تکمیل شد. پرسشنامه تحقیق در دو بخش مشارکت محیط‌زیستی و مسئولیت‌پذیری محیط‌زیستی در طیف پاسخ پنج گزینه‌ای لیکرت طراحی شد. پایایی پرسشنامه با استفاده از آزمون-آزمون مجدد و محاسبه ضریب آلفای کرونباخ برای پرسشنامه‌های مشارکت و مسئولیت‌پذیری محیط‌زیستی به ترتیب 0/79 و 0/86 محاسبه شد. نتایج نشان داد که مشارکت اقتصادی، مشارکت اجتماعی و مشارکت فرهنگی به ترتیب با 14/37، 13/70 و 12/96 از بیشترین امتیاز در بین جوامع روستایی برخوردار است. در میان ابعاد مسئولیت‌پذیری نیز مسئولیت‌پذیری حقوق بشری با میانگین 19/43 بیشترین میزان مسئولیت‌پذیری در بین ساکنین مناطق روستایی است و پس‌ازآن، به ترتیب مسئولیت‌پذیری قانونی با میانگین 18/6، فکری و درونی با میانگین 17/37 و عملیاتی با میانگین 16/85 قرار دارند. مقایسه میزان مشارکت و مسئولیت‌پذیری در مناطق روستایی شهرستان بندرعباس نشان داد که تفاوت معنی‌دار بین مناطق مختلف روستایی وجود ندارد (P > 0.05). روستاییان در حفظ و نگهداری محیط‌زیست فعالیت و مشارکت دارند که این امر نشان‌دهنده توجه مردم به محیط‌زیست طبیعی منطقه است. 2 The purpose of this study was to investigate the level of environmental responsibility and environmental participation among the residents of rural areas in Bandar Abbas county, which was conducted by survey and field methods. Sample size was determined based on the Cochran’s formula and the required data were collected through questionnaires. A total of 366 questionnaires were completed in a stratified-random manner. The research questionnaire was designed in two parts: environmental participation and environmental responsibility, using the 5-points Likert scale. The reliability of the questionnaires, calculated by test-retest and Cronbach's alpha coefficient for the participation and environmental responsibility questionnaires, were 0.79 and 0.86 respectively. Results showed that economic, social and cultural participations with the score of 14.37, 13.70 and 12.96 respectively, have the highest scores in rural communities. Among the dimensions of responsibility, human rights responsibility with an average of 19.43 was the highest score among the residents of rural areas, followed by legal responsibility (18.6), intellectual and internal (17.37) and operational (16.85) responsibility. Comparison of participation and responsibility in rural areas of Bandar Abbas showed that there is no significant difference between different rural areas (P ˃ 0.05). The rural residents are active and involved in environmental protection, showing people's attention to the natural environment of the region. 35 46 2021/08/212021/09/12021/07/2 1400/4/11 2021/11/12021/11/72021/11/22 1400/9/1 صابر قاسمی S. Ghasemi دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد بندرعباس، ایران. ایران saberghasemi@gmail.com Participation Responsibility Environmental protection Bandar Abbas Rural Areas مشارکت مسئولیت‌پذیری حفاظت محیط زیست مناطق روستایی بندرعباس 1. Ahangari Kiasari, H. and M. Charmchian Langerodi. 2018. Investigating the factors affecting village governors’ participation in rural environmental protection in Sari. Human & Environment, 16(1), 1-12. (In Persian)##2. Ahmadi, S. 2020. Study of effective factors on rural biological settlements (Case study: Sardasht city). 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An ecolinguistic approach to anthropocentrism in defining animals in Moin persian dictionary. Researches in Linguistics, 8(1), 53-70. ##15. Haji Alizadeh, S., M. Dehghani and A. Samavi. 2013. Students' environmental responsibility in environmental protection. Paper presented at the 1st national and specialized conference on environmental research in Iran, Hamadan. https://civilica.com/doc/238664/. Accessed at 17 Sep 2021. (In Persian) ##16. Heidari Sarban, V. 2019. The role of social responsibility in strengthening border security in rural areas Case study: Garmi border city. Journal of Border Studies, 7(3), 139-164. (In Persian) ##17. Hejazi, R. and S.S. Nasiri. 2015. Corporate citizenship and corporate social responsibility. Journal of accounting, accountability and society interests, 4(4), 163-183. (In Persian) ##18. Jalalian, H., L. Javed, F. Javan and Z. Ghasemiyan. 2020. Measuring villagers' awareness of sustainable agriculture in order to preserve the natural ecosystem (Case study: Rural settlements along lake Zarivar). Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 21(12), 197-207. (In Persian)##19. Khoshbin, Y. 2015. Methods of attracting public and private sector participation in environmental education and presenting capacity building strategies. Paper presented at the 5th National Conference and Exhibition on Environmental Engineering, Tehran. https://civilica.com/doc/121888/. Accessed at 11 Apr 2021. (In Persian) ##20. Kiani Salmi, S. and M. Shaterian. 2018. Analysis of social and cultural factors affecting the environment (Case study: Kashan). Environmental Education and Sustainable Development, 6(2), 101-116. (In Persian) ##21. Maraga, J.N., J.K. Kibwage and B.O. Oindo. 2010. Factors determining community participation in afforestation projects in River Nyando basin, Kenya. 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اثر متغیرهای محیطی بر وقوع و گسترش بیماری طاعون نشخوارکنندگان کوچک در استان مرکزی The Effect of Environmental Factors on the Occurrence and Spread of Pest Des Petits Ruminants Disease in Markazi Province, Iran 1 1 شیوع چند باره طاعون نشخوارکنندگان کوچک (PPR) طی ده سال گذشته در ایران با اثرات ویران ‌کننده‌ای بر جمعیت‌های بز وحشی، گوسپند وحشی، و نشخوارکنندگان کوچک اهلی همراه بوده است. پژوهش حاضر با هدف پیش‌بینی گستره‌ی احتمالی وقوع و شیوع بیماری، شناسایی عوامل محیطی و سیمای سرزمین مؤثر بر گسترش آن و شناسایی مسیرهای انتقال بیماری توسط میزبانان وحشی در استان مرکزی انجام شد. با استفاده از مدل بی‌نظمی بیشینه، ارزیابی احتمال رخداد طاعون نشخوارکنندگان کوچک یکبار برای دام و حیات‌وحش به صورت جداگانه و همچنین، برای هر دو گروه به‌طور همزمان انجام گرفت. تئوری مدار‌‌الکتریکی نیز به منظور شناسایی مسیرهای جابه‌جایی و انتقال بیماری از طریق میزبان‌های وحشی ویروس طاعون نشخوارکنندگان کوچک مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. شاخص عملکرد مدل به ترتیب در مدل‌‌های اجرا شده با داده‌های وقوع بیماری در دام، حیات‌‌وحش و دام-حیات وحش 0/727، 0/997 و 0/849 محاسبه گردید. بارش مرطوب‌ترین ماه مهم‌ترین متغیر تأثیر‌گذار بر شیوع بیماری در استان مرکزی شناسایی شد. مسیرهای بالقوه مهاجرتی گوسپند وحشی حاصل از تئوری مدار‌‌الکتریکی منطبق بر مناطق دارای احتمال زیاد وقوع بیماری بود. نتایج مطالعه حاضر می‌تواند در توسعه روش‌های مدیریتی مؤثر بر پیشگیری از شیوع این بیماری کشنده در حیات وحش کشور مؤثر باشد. 2 The prevalence of the Pest des petits ruminants (PPR) over the past ten years in Iran has resulted in devastating effects on the wild goat (Capra aegagrus) and mouflon (Ovis gmelini) populations, as well as small domestic ruminants. The aim of this study was to identify areas with high risk of PPR outbreak, determine the environmental and landscape factors affecting the spread of the disease, and identify the transmission corridors of the disease through the wild hosts of PPR virus in Markazi province. The risk of occurrence of PPR was mapped once in livestock and wildlife separately and also jointly for both groups using maximum entropy model. An electrical circuit model was used to identify migration corridors and evaluate the transmission of disease through the wild hosts of the PPR virus. The model performance index was calculated 0.727 for livestock, 0.997 for wild ruminants, and 0.849 for both groups. The results showed that precipitation of the wettest month was the most important variable affecting the prevalence of PPR. Potential migration corridors of wild sheep matched the areas where the risk of PPR occurrence was high. 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ارزیابی توسعه شبکه مناطق حفاظتی استان مرکزی با استفاده از سنجه‌های سیمای سرزمین Assessment of the Conservation Area Network Development in Markazi Province Using Landscape Metrics 1 1 اولویت‌بندی و انتخاب مناطق نمونه از کل طبیعت جهت حفاظت از تنوع زیستی ضروری است. هدف اصلی این تحقیق ارزیابی توسعه شبکه مناطق حفاظتی با سنجه‌های سیمای سرزمین در استان مرکزی است. بدین منظور از نرم افزارهای MaxEnt،  Marxan،  Fragstst 4.2  و هشت معیار حفاظتی استفاده شد.  نتایج حاصل با الگوریتم‌های مذاب‌سازی شبیه‌سازی شده، حریص و نادر و سنجه‌های مختلف سیمای‌سرزمین مقایسه شد. برای مدل‌سازی زیستگاه گونه‌ها از روش حداکثر آنتروپی استفاده شد. بررسی نتایج سناریوهای مختلف حفاظتی نشان داد که هدف حفاظتی30 درصد با BLM معادل 30 به‌عنوان مناسب‌ترین گزینه می‌باشد. الگوریتم مذاب‌سازی شبیه‌سازی شده نتایج قابل قبول‌تری را در تمام موارد ارائه داد و نتایج همپوشانی مناطق منتخب حفاظتی با مناطق تحت حفاظت موجود در استان مرکزی نشان داد که در برآوردن هدف حفاظتی 30 درصد تنها دو معیار حفاظتی موفق است. که از لحاظ دستیابی به اهداف حفاظتی، کارایی مناسبی را ندارد. در اغلب سناریوها، هم‌پوشانی شبکه‌های حفاظتی منتخب با مناطق تحت حفاظت موجود کمتر از 45/31 درصد است. نتایج سنجه‌های سیمای سرزمین نشان داد فاصله مناطق حفاظتی از یکدیگر متغییر است. تنوع و فراوانی مناطق حفاظتی کم  است. بنابراین شبکه مناطق حفاظتی استان مرکزی جزء زیست بوم‌های آسیب پذیر با شکنندگی زیاد  قرار دارد. 2 Prioritization and selection of sample areas from the whole nature is necessary to protect biodiversity. The main purpose of this study was to evaluate the development of a network of conservation areas in Markazi province using landscape metrics. For this purpose, we used MaxEnt, Marxan, Fragstat softwares and eight conservation criteria. Results were compared by using simulated sorting, greedy, best and max rarity algorithms and different landscape metrics. Maximum entropy method was used to model the wildlife habitats. The results of different protection scenarios showed that a 30% conservation target with a Boundary Length Modifier (BLM)of 30 is the most appropriate option. The simulated sorting algorithm provided  more acceptable results in all cases. Overlaping  the selected protection areas with the map of protected areas in Markazi province showed that only two protection criteria, out of the 8 selected criteria, are successful in providing the 30% protection target, which is not efficient in terms of achieving protection goals. In most scenarios, the overlap of the selected protection networks with the existing protected areas are less than 31.45%.Results of landscape metrics showed that the distance between conservation areas varies. The diversity and abundance  of the conservation areas are low. . Therefore, the conservation areas in Markazi province are among the vulnerable ecosystems with high fragility. 65 80 2021/08/212021/09/12021/07/22021/09/182021/09/8 1400/6/17 2021/11/12021/11/72021/11/222021/12/272022/02/13 1400/11/24 امیر انصاری A. Ansari دانشگاه اراک ایران A-ansari@araku.ac.ir Marxan MaxEnt Landscape metrics Markazi province Marxan MaxEnt سنجه سیمای‌سرزمین استان مرکزی 1. Ardron, J.A., H.P. Possingham and C.J. Klein. 2008. Marxan good practices handbook. External review version, 17 May, 2008.Pacific Marine Analysis and Research Association, Vancouver, BC, Canada. 155 p, viewed 10 December 2010, www.pacmara.org.##2. Barati, B., B. Raygani, A. Jahani, and L. Zebardast. 2017. 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آشکارسازی رخداد تغییر اقلیم براساس شاخص‌های دمایی گرم در اکوسیستم جنگلی زاگرس؛ استان چهارمحال و بختیاری Detection of Climate Change Based on Warm Temperature Indices in Zagros Forest Ecosystem; Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province 1 1 باوجودی که یکی از مهم‌ترین عوامل موثر بر زوال و خشکیدگی جنگل‌های زاگرس رخداد تغییر اقلیم به‌ویژه طی دو دهه اخیر است، تخریب و زوال جنگل‌های زاگرس هم می‌تواند روند رخداد تغییر اقلیم را در این اکوسیستم تشدید کند. به‌منظور آشکارسازی رخداد تغییر اقلیم در جنگل‌های استان چهار محال و بختیاری با گونه غالب بلوط ایرانی (Quercus brantii)، از داده‌های روزانه پارامترهای دمای حداقل، دمای حداکثر و بارش استفاده شد. داده‌ها از نظر کیفیت و همگنی بررسی و برای ورود به مدل اقلیمی آشکارکننده رخداد تغییر اقلیم آماده شدند. شاخص‌های دمایی گرم آشکارکننده تغییر اقلیم با استفاده از نرم‌افزار ClimPACT در محیط برنامه‌نویسی R 2.10 برای دوره آماری 2019-1992محاسبه شدند. روند تغییرات، خطای شیب روند و معنی‌داری تغییرات با P-Value=0.05 استخراج شد. نتایج نشان داد در تمام سایت‌های پایش زوال شاخص‌های دمایی گرم شامل 2TX2TN SU35 ,SU30 ,SU25 ,TN90p ,TX90p , TX50p, WSDI6 ,WSDI2 روند افزایشی و معنی‌داری داشتند. تغییرات شیب روند شاخص‌ها با شروع پدیده زوال همخوانی داشته و در دو دهه اخیر از شدت بیشتری برخوردار بوده است. با توجه به روند افزایش دما این روند افزایشی شاخص‌ها در سال‌های آینده نیز تداوم داشته و جنگل‌های منطقه با تنش خشکی بیشتری مواجه خواهند شد. آگاهی از شدت تغییرات رخ داده و تداوم آن در آینده می‌تواند مدیران و برنامه‌ریزان اکوسیستم جنگلی زاگرس را در راهکارهای عملیاتی در سازگاری با تغییر اقلیم جهت حفظ و احیاء جنگل یاری کند. 2 Although one of the most important factors affecting the decline and drying of Zagros forests is the occurrence of climate change, especially during the last two decades, the degradation and decline of Zagros forests can intensify the trend of climate change in this ecosystem. In order to detect the occurrence of climate change in the Zagros oak (Quecus brantii) forests of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province, daily data of minimum temperature, maximum temperature and precipitation parameters were used. Data were analyzed for quality and homogeneity and prepared to enter into the climate model that reveals the occurrence of climate change. Warm temperature indicators for climate change detection were calculated, using ClimPACT software in R 2.10 programming environment for the  period of 1992-1999. Trend change, trend slope error and significance of changes were extracted at p = 0.05. The results showed that at all monitoring sites, hot temperature indices, including 2TX2TN SU35, SU30, SU25, TN90p, TX90p, TX50p, WSDI6, WSDI2, had a significantly increasing trend. Changes in the slope of the trend of these indicators coincided with the beginning of the decline phenomenon and have been more intense in the last two decades. Due to the increasing trend of temperature, this increasing trend of indicators will continue in the coming years and the forests of the region will face more drought stress. Awareness of the severity of the changes that have occurred and their continuation in the future can help managers and planners of the Zagros forest ecosystem in operational solutions in adapting to climate change to preserve and rehabilitate forests. 81 99 2021/08/212021/09/12021/07/22021/09/182021/09/82021/10/10 1400/7/18 2021/11/12021/11/72021/11/222021/12/272022/02/132022/02/6 1400/11/17 فاطمه درگاهیان F. Dargahian موسسه تحقیقات جنگلها و مراتع کشور ایران fatemeh.dargahian@gmail.com مهدی پورهاشمی M. Pourhashemi موسسه تحقیقات جنگلها و مذاتع کشور ایران doveyse@yahoo.com Climate adaptation Drought stress decline and drying Warm temperature indices تنش خشکی سازگاری اقلیمی شاخص‌های دمایی گرم زوال و خشکیدگی 1. Ahmadi, R., H. Kiadaliri, A. Mataji and S. Kafaki. 2014. Oak forest decline zonation using AHP model and GIS technique in Zagros forests of Ilam province. Journal of Biodiversity and Environmental Sciences, 4(3), 141-50.##2. Ahmadi, R., H. Fathi, J. Nouri Nejad, and A. Jafarzadeh. 2018. The role of climatic factors (dust, rainfall and temperature) on the decline and death of oak trees in Ilam province, 2nd International Dust Conference, Ilam. ##3. Asgari, S., T. Razi, A. Hosseini and NajafifarA., 2021. Temporal-spatial analysis of drought and oak trees dieback of Zagros forests in Ilam Province. Ecology of Iranian Forest, (17):86-96. (In Persian)##4. Attarod, P., S. M. Sadeghi, F. Taheri Sartshanizi, S. Saroei, P. Abbasian, M. Masihpoor, F. Kordrostami and A. Dirikvandi. 2016. The effect of climatic factors and evapotranspiration on the decline of Central Zagros forests in Lorestan province. Research on Protection and Conservation of Forests and Rangelands of Iran, 13 (2), 97-112. (In Persian)##5. Bedrood, F., H. 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